Roosevelt Island is too short. Like a relatively tiny NFL quarterback, Roosevelt Island’s ambitions exceed its possibilities, but no one fesses up to a scam gone on too long.
When he was an NFL quarterback, Doug Flutie’s passes shot up out of a shrinking wall of linebackers and lineman, source unseen. At 5′ 10″, Flutie chaffed at being dissed as too short for the position.
He fought back, but it never made him any taller. Roosevelt Island should be able to relate.
Roosevelt Island is too short: The Doug Flutie Factor
In a game against the Indianapolis Colts, Buffalo’s defense knocked down a Payton Manning’s pass. Manning is 6′ 5″.
“He’s too short!” a frustrated Flute yelled from the sidelines.
He hated it, insisting he was tall enough and that his successes proved it.
A Heisman Trophy and a legendary professional career, most of it in Canada, couldn’t erase the stigma.
Flutie was unique, creative, versatile, one of a kind, but he, like Roosevelt Island, really was too short. Scrambling, compensating for his height, did not set NFL general managers hearts aflutter.
At least, he didn’t lie about his height
Out of the box projections for Roosevelt Island’s population were a suspiciously round number: 20,000. That was enough, it was thought, to make a self-sustaining community,.
20,000 Roosevelt Islanders, vibrant Main Street retail and the government infrastructure needed to run the place… It all made sense.
In the beginning, New York budgeted subsidies to cover the shortfall as new buildings went up.
But New York, under Governor Mario Cuomo, became a budget battleground. The annual subsidy vanished long before the General Development Plan was near complete.
This left Roosevelt Island dependent on developers and groveling.
We don’t know where the faulty population numbers came from or why they were accepted as accurate.
My guess: Roosevelt Island was unique and some bureaucrat pulled the number out of the orifice of his choice. No one disagreed. How could they? Compared with what?
The Doug Flutie Factor
Worst of all, there was no coherent plan to get to 20,000.
First built were the WIRE buildings — Westview, Island House, Rivercross and Eastwood (now Roosevelt Landings.) Adventurers put down stakes in an experiment seeding community from scratch.
The beautiful things about the WIRE buildings are still visible today. Inside, generous living space and creative floor plans. There are all-season swimming pools and community spaces.
The first Roosevelt Island library was built by residents, including Alice Childress, in Westview.
But the Doug Flutie Factor was already entrenched. Our own WIRE Core Four was home to no more than 6,000 people, probably less.
Where would we get the other 14,000?
Faking population figures was standard practice by the time I covered the 2010 Census. Deception and frustrations already seeded the disaster known airily as Shops on Main.
When we’re not dealing with facts, it’s obvious that we can’t deal with the facts.
The Core Four making up Roosevelt Island were too short, like Doug Flutie. They didn’t take us close to 20,000, and also like Flutie, you couldn’t fix it.
The factor spread, but Roosevelt Island is still too short
Manhattan Park, the first complex springing to life beyond the WIRE borders, tops out at 22 Floors. (The uppermost floors along River Road are tagged “23,” but the 13th was skipped on the way up.)
Struggling to get apartments leased, Manhattan Park launched full page ads in the New York Times. There were big rent concessions.
Once you got people here, they’d love it and stay.
Manhattan Park also paid for the first Red Buses to make commuting easier and invested in the expansion of Motorgate.
The Octagon tops out at 13 floors. And Southtown’s high rises are smaller than towers going up across the East River in Long Island City.
Others developments followed.
That’s not a real problem.
We’re probably right sized for the hometown originally sought, close-knit, united in our goals. One goal, ironically, was to stay small, less in demand, off the beaten track.
It’s not a problem until you get to the pesky issue of generating revenue to pay for RIOC and make it rewarding for merchants to invest on Main Street.
Hudson-Related’s lightweight between the ears insistence that Shops On Main pay Manhattan level rentals is all you need to know about why there are so many empty spaces and so little variety in what we do have.
RIOC and partner Hudson-Related can rhapsodize all day about eclectic new businesses energizing the corridor, drawing scads of foot traffic. Investors promised that for years, but the blinders came off for residents long ago.
We aren’t ever going to have enough people here for a thriving, unsubsidized business community because, like Doug Flutie, Roosevelt Island’s too damned short.
Height is the only way we’d ever get to 20,000, and it’s also, like Doug Flutie, too late, even for a Hail Mary.
Roosevelt Island is too short, and facts bear it out
Dreams are great. Facts are what pay the bills.
Last census, 2010, Roosevelt Island hit a new high — 11,661 residents.
There were complaints of an undercount, but a long look at the details did not support that in any serious way.
Local media eager to sell ads and RIOC, eager to pitch Main Street retail, kept pushing the now clearly fictional 14,000 number that’d been drilled into local awareness. Sometimes, they goosed it up as high as 16,000 with nothing whatsoever to support it.
When we’re not dealing with facts…
Since then, a gorgeous new set of apartments went up in Southtown 7, Blackwell Park as its historical and charming backyard. And Cornell Tech created an environmentally friendly, landmark residential tower, The House.
But between the two, they can’t compensate in residents for the loss of Goldwater Hospital’s 1,000 plus.
The result is, we may be somewhat shy of 2010’s census in real time. The only saving grace may be an increase in student transient housing as more individuals fill up converted apartments than families were ever able to.
Let’s be realistic.
We have only two more Southtown buildings to go, and then, the GDP is done, no more apartment complexes possible without slicing off our foundation. That’s roughly a thousand more Roosevelt Islanders.
Cornell Tech’s campus projections can’t even be guessed at since futures build outs are only speculation, but a total estimate of 2,000 is probably on the high side, much of that already in place.
Looking back, you can only regret that no one did serious planning, settling instead for imaginary numbers, to come up with ways to deal with an inevitable gap.
And higher resident counts may not have been feasible anyway.
If Manhattan Park was 35 stories and The Octagon 20, are there enough potential renters and coop buyers to fill up the extra floors? We’re never going to know that, but there’s good reason to doubt that many more people can be coaxed out into the East River by Tram and already overcrowded subways.
Bottom line: At best, Roosevelt Island will top out somewhere under 15,000, the bulk far removed from the WIRE core.
How much longer do we wait to accept the facts and start devising real solutions for Main Street?
Realistically, the corridor doesn’t have too many empty storefronts – it has too many storefronts, period, until some group more imaginative than Hudson-Related and RIOC step up with some solutions.