Assorted Ideas

Faith in numbers: Trump held steady among believers at the ballot – it was the nonreligious vote he lost in 2020

Ryan Burge, Eastern Illinois University

For all the predictions and talk of a slump in support among evangelicals, it appears Donald Trump’s election loss was not at the hands of religious voters.

belief bible book business
Photo by Pixabay on Pexels.com

As an analyst of religious data, I’ve been crunching data released in March 2021 that breaks down the 2020 U.S. presidential election results by faith. And by and large there was very little notable change in the vote choice of religious groups between 2016 and 2020 – in fact, for most faiths, support for Trump ticked up slightly. Instead, it was among those who do not identify with any religion that Trump saw a noticeable drop.

Despite exit poll data initially pointing toward a drop in white evangelical support for Trump in 2020, the latest data shows this not to be the case. The data is based on the Cooperative Election Study, which has become the gold standard for assessing vote choice because of its sample size and its ability to accurately represent the voting population of the United States.

In fact, with 80% of white evangelicals backing Trump in 2020, support actually ticked up from the 78% who voted for him four years earlier.
Trump also saw two-point increases in the vote of nonwhite evangelicals, white Catholics, Black Protestants and Jews compared with four years ago.

These differences are not statistically significant, and as such it would be wrong to say it definitively shows Trump gained among religious groups. But it indicates that among the largest religious groups in the U.S., voting patterns in the November 2020 vote seemed to hold largely steady with four years earlier. Trump did not manage to win significantly larger shares, nor was winner Joe Biden able to peel away religious voters from the Trump coalition.

Losing the nonreligious

However, there are some interesting and statistically significant trends when you break down the data further. Nonwhite Catholics shifted four points toward Donald Trump. This fits with what we saw in places like the heavily Hispanic and Catholic Miami-Dade County, Florida, where Trump’s overall vote share improved from 35% to 46% between 2016 and 2020.

Trump also managed to pick up 15 percentage points among the Mormon vote. On first glance this would appear a large jump. But it makes sense when you factor in that around 15% of the Mormon vote in 2016 went to Utah native and fellow Mormon Evan McMullin, who ran in that year’s election as a third-party candidate. Without McMullin in 2020, Trump picked up Mormon voters – as did Joe Biden, who did slightly better than Hillary Clinton had among Mormons.

There is also some weak evidence that the Republican candidate picked up some support among smaller religious groups in the U.S., like Hindus and Buddhists. Trump increased his share among these two groups by four percentage points each. But it is important to note that these two groups combined constitute only about 1.5% of the American population. As such, a four-point increase translates to only a very small fraction of the overall popular vote.

What is clear is that Trump lost a good amount of ground among the religious unaffiliated. Trump’s share of the atheist vote declined from 14% in 2016 to just 11% in 2020; the decline among agnostics was slightly larger, from 23% to 18%.

Additionally, those who identify as “nothing in particular” – a group that represents 21% of the overall U.S. population – were not as supportive of Trump in his reelection bid. His vote share among this group dropped by three percentage points, while Biden’s rose by over seven points, with the Democrat managing to win over many of the “nothing in particulars” who had backed third-party candidates in the 2016 election.

Looked at broadly, Trump did slightly better among Christians and other smaller religious groups in the U.S. but lost ground among the religiously unaffiliated. What these results cannot account for, however, is record turnout. There were nearly 22 million more votes cast in 2020 than in 2016. So while vote shares may not have changed that much, the number of votes cast helped swing the election for the Democratic candidate. A more detailed breakdown of voter turnout is due to be released in July 2021 by the team that administers the Cooperative Election Study; that will bring the picture of religion and the 2020 vote into clearer focus.

[Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend. Sign up for our weekly newsletter.]The Conversation

Ryan Burge, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Eastern Illinois University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Latest from Assorted Ideas, Large & Small

Lisbon Portugal Alfama View

Lisbon, Portugal, Alfama View, Fine Art Photography Print/©Deborah Julian

One for the books…

TIP OF THE ICEBERG

Khalil Bendib / OtherWords.org Assorted Ideas, Large & Small A federal indictment against the Trump Organization might be just the beginning of Donald Trump’s future legal troubles. By Khalil Bendib | July 14, 2021 Also from Assorted Ideas, Large & Small

Keep reading
banner internet united states of america usa

Op-Ed: Critical race theory is about to face its day(s) in court

John Murawski | RealClearInvestigations/April 27th, 2021 As recently as last summer, few people outside academia had heard of critical race theory, whose central claim is that racism, not liberty, is the founding value and guiding vision of American society. Then, President Donald Trump issued an executive order last September banning the teaching of this “malign…

Keep reading
Chuck Schumer in Union Square

I Met Chuck Schumer in Union Square, Talked the Filibuster and Joe Manchin

We bumped into Senator Chuck Schumer in Union Square today as he retail politicked his way through the Farmers Market. First impression: He’s shorter than you think. Second, I’m still pissed over what he and Kristen Gillibrand did to Al Franken.

Keep reading
woman holding cardboard signage

Women are still less than one-third of Congress and state legislatures, even after two big election cycles

A Republican rebound drove overall gains in 2020, but women are still underrepresented at all legislative levels, according to a new analysis by Rutgers University’s Center for Women and Politics. Amanda Becker

Keep reading
woman with an american flag

House Democrats pass major legislation on voting rights and government ethics

The bill, which comes as a number of state legislatures push for new voting restrictions, faces steeper odds in the Senate.  Barbara Rodriguez Originally published by The 19th House Democrats on Wednesday night approved a sweeping voting rights and government ethics bill that seeks to expand voting access and make campaign finance more transparent. The…

Keep reading
silhouette of people beside usa flag

Most US states don’t have a filibuster – nor do many democratic countries

Joshua Holzer, Westminster College As the U.S. Senate proceeds with its business, split 50-50 between Republicans on one side and Democrats and independents on the other, lawmakers and the public at large are concerned about the future of the filibuster.

Keep reading

Loading…

Something went wrong. Please refresh the page and/or try again.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.